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If a market is in a probable Wave-5, the next momentum reversal could be the early signal the Wave-5 is complete and we can adjust our trade management strategies accordingly. I believe this book and CD combination provides a better learning buying bitcoin with usd on gdax introduction to cryptocurrency trading terms than even most live workshops, because you can study all the material at your own pace and replay the recorded CD examples over and. Trade in the direction of the larger time frame momentum. Have you ever read a book or taken a trading course where every example showed how every market responded to whatever signal was being taught? Review these every day. You would then use the momentum, price, and time tools taught best online brokerage account for day trading how to buy a penny stock no on computer this book to determine if the market gann swing trading software what are the trading hours for lh futures in a position to complete a correction for a long trade setup well before it continued to advance and take out a swing high. An important aspect of their work involves the nonlinear effect of trend. We are only interested in the two types of patterns that are useful to help us understand the position of the market and to make practical trade decisions. The MTF Momentum Strategy is a key factor to the trade plan that identifies high probability trade setups with minimal capital exposure. Without Bob Miner, I would not be enjoying the very successful career I have today. Trends usually make five sections, and the sections do not overlap. It will still take a trade above the Wave-B high to confirm the corrective low should be complete. Regardless of the specific trade execution strategy used, based only on the Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy setups there were two set ups for clear-cut winners, and two no-trades or small losses. But, as you can see from Figure 2. The pattern guidelines I teach for trends or corrections do not involve a complicated counting scheme or getting lost in the paralysis of analysis. This is where you learn to apply all how to bitfinex lend can i sell bitcoin on binance the practical strategies, from recognizing high probability trade setups, to the specific entry strategy, stop-loss adjustment, and exit strategy. Anyone who tells you there is such an answer is full of beans and, I suspect, has a very high-priced trading course or system to sell you. Professional technical analysis societies have worked on creating a body of knowledge that describes the field of Technical Analysis. Even though momentum and price trends often do not move in the same direction, you will soon learn how we can use momentum trends in a simple and practical way as the primary indicator of trade direction and trade execution setups. It is a setup for a short trade with very minimal capital exposure. John Murphy states that the principal sources of information available to technicians are price, volume and open. Malkiel has compared technical analysis to " astrology ". That is why retracements are a key to help identify where a correction will end and why Dynamic Price Strategies are a very important part of a trading plan. A momentum crossover is similar to a moving average crossover except the momentum crossover is of the indicator values and not the price data. While it is a little difficult to see this in the black-and-white screen shots, the momentum reversals for each indicator where the fast line crosses the slow line are all within a bar or two of each .
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Have you ever read a book or taken a trading course where every example showed how every market responded to whatever signal was being taught? The last bar on the chart has made a new high following a probable Wave-4 low. It took a couple of years to work out practical strategies for a momentum indicator to be a part of a real- world trading plan. This approach is applicable to any actively traded market and any time frame, from position-trading with monthly, weekly, and daily data to day-trading with intra- day data. Hugh 13 January If you are a new trader or one who has not yet found consistent success in the business of trading futures, stocks, or forex, you will learn specific trade strategies, from how to identify high probability trade conditions, to the specific entry and stop price, through exit strategies that are designed to maximize the gain from any trend. In the late s, professors Andrew Lo and Craig McKinlay published a paper which cast doubt on the random walk hypothesis. We can never have a different set of momentum rules for bull or bear or trading range, or for volatile or stable markets, or any other unique market condition, because we never know what type of market lies ahead. E-wave academics have identified 13 patterns of complex corrections. If the larger time frame daily momentum is bullish, a smaller time frame 60m momentum bullish reversal puts two time frames of momentum in the same direction, which is a high probability setup for a continued advance. They meet the minimum conditions to consider entering a trade. Feel free to spend your spare time learning about the fascinating history and historical application of these geometric and harmonic numbers and ratios. Because investor behavior repeats itself so often, technicians believe that recognizable and predictable price patterns will develop on a chart.
Readers, however, should contact the appropriate companies for more complete information regarding trademarks and registration. This information will be a huge advantage and help us to be prepared for a top and major reversal just when most traders are very bullish. The black-box system scammers will claim they have a secret, foolproof indicator, but more than likely it is one you already have in your charting program. The third weekly momentum trend was bullish from the week ending December 23 through the week ending February 18 Figure 2. The second and third 15m momentum bullish should you invest in bitcoin in 2020 social crypto trading were followed by strong ad- vances. If an example is not a market or time frame you typically trade, ignore the symbol and focus on what is to be learned. This is a similar Stoch momentum pattern to what we saw on the previous chart, which had much larger corrections during the bullish trend. If you are a swing trader looking for trades that last a few days, you will use daily and hourly data. A momentum indi- cator can be useful to help identify trend direction and trade execution if used with the unique multiple time frame momentum strategy you will learn in this book. Near the end of the correction, GM traded to a new high for the correction but why did my stop limit order not execute how quickly can i sell on robinhood the bull trend high shown on the chart, then traded back into the range of the first section up, signaling more than likely it was making a correction and would eventually continue lower. A trade beyond the Wave-B extreme is a pattern signal that the correction should be complete. Why not just call it Fibonacci price strategies? Participants Regulation Clearing. InI released what I believe dividends stock photo interactive brokers group inc address the first futures trading home study course, called the W. That is why you can use almost any price based indicator for the Multiple Time Frame Momentum Strategy you will learn in this chapter. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. It is a precondition that must be met before a trade is even considered.
The pattern guidelines I teach for trends or corrections do not involve a complicated counting scheme or getting lost in the paralysis of analysis. Following the Wave-C low, AA traded up into the range of Wave-A for an overlap and pattern signal that AA should be making a correction to a bull trend, not a bear trend to a new low. The main factor is the sections were overlapping, typical of a correction. Notice that I continually use the words potential, probable, more than likely, and. You will learn how to look at any section of data of any market and any time frame and quickly determine if a market is likely in a trend or correction and if the pattern conditions have been made to complete the trend or correction. Is there any way to know if the bear trend is in the final stages? Nice setup. Starting from the characterization of the past time evolution of market prices in terms of price velocity and price acceleration, an attempt towards a general framework for technical analysis has been developed, with the goal of establishing a principled classification of the possible patterns characterizing the deviation or defects from the random walk market state and its time translational invariant properties. The new high signals a trend should be under way. But sometimes they. Technical analysis is not limited to charting, but it always considers price trends. Every one of these techniques, whether a trendline, volatility channel, moving aver- age crossover, or momentum indicator, can be a useful part of a comprehensive trading tradingview authors high frequency trading system architecture, but none of them alone will be of much use in and of itself to identify the probable trend direction for a future period. If a trader best ios bitcoin exchange cryptocurrency exchange fee chart on just the limited, relevant information needed to make a high probability trade decision, the chance of success is great. In some software, this routine is called extensions instead of Alternate Price Projections. We begin with a unique approach to momentum strategies, the multiple time frame momentum strategy in Chapter 2. But this is just one chapter and just one part of the trading plan. The second, third, and fourth 15m bearish reversals shown in Figure 2. Lo wrote that "several academic studies suggest that
Read They say no question is a dumb question Hello, I am looking for a platform to automate a swing trading strategy. If the JY continued higher beyond this zone, it would likely continue all the way to near the There are only so many ways to crunch the open-high-low-close of price bars. It includes the same data on this chart plus a couple of addi- tional weeks of data. What is the primary variable for most indicators? The Stoch has overbought OB and oversold OS zones plus a fast and slow line, both characteristics that are helpful for our purposes. But rather it is almost exactly halfway between the two. That was the period when the higher time frame weekly momentum was bearish, yet price was sideways to marginally up by the end of the period. I had heard about Fibonacci retracements before, but only as they were applied to the price axis of the market. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. Around the mids, at the prompting of one of my students, I began to look at how a momentum indicator could help confirm the pattern and price position. Back to internal retracements: What are they and how do we make and display them on a chart? Nice setup.
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Hugh 13 January We are always trading on the right-hand side of the chart after the last bar, which is the unknown side of the chart. Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Economist Eugene Fama published the seminal paper on the EMH in the Journal of Finance in , and said "In short, the evidence in support of the efficient markets model is extensive, and somewhat uniquely in economics contradictory evidence is sparse. How does the pattern of the BP data through the last data point help us? It can be a very costly inclination in the later stages of a trend. The 60m momentum turned bearish just a few bars before the big pop up. Price and momentum may not trend in the same direction. In this a technician sees strong indications that the down trend is at least pausing and possibly ending, and would likely stop actively selling the stock at that point. Technical analysis is not limited to charting, but it always considers price trends. You may have already had some exposure to Elliott wave analysis and become so confused by the overcomplicated approach to cycle degrees, subdivisions, and alternate wave counts taught by E-wave academics that your eyes are already starting to roll around.
Around the mids, at the prompting of one of my students, I began to look at how a momentum indicator could help confirm the pattern and price position. My strategy was based on Gann, Elliott, and Fibonacci. Never expect price to reverse when the indicator makes a reversal. The video CD included with this book is an important part of the learning experience. I wish we had room in the crypto exchange that can cash coins cheapest way to buy bitcoin canada to put a hun- dred more examples of Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy setups, indicators, and their settings. When price and momentum diverge, as in the case of a bullish price trend and bearish momentum trend, the larger time frame bearish momentum will keep us out of trades when the price trend is slowing. A momentum crossover is similar to a moving average crossover except the momentum crossover is of the indicator values and not the price data. The basic definition of a price trend was originally put forward by Dow theory. It would have been very effective to identify entry signals during the larger time frame bull trend. The principles and process are the same for any indicator. Not every trend makes a five-wave pattern that conforms to the trend guidelines. Look at a series of data for any market and any time frame. In his book A Random Walk Down Wall StreetPrinceton economist Burton Malkiel said that technical forecasting tools such as pattern analysis must ultimately be self-defeating: "The problem is that once such a regularity is known to market participants, people will act in such a way that prevents it from happening in the future. The principles and application are the same regardless of the market or time frame. New York Institute of Finance,pp. Not every overlap of excel includes non trading days how to chart my portfolio on etrade will be part of a correction. Most important, a momentum reversal does not indicate where the market is within the price trend or if the trend itself is at or near a reversal. We can never have a different set of is ai stock market trading any good what is the copper etf rules for bull or bear or trading range, or for volatile or stable markets, or any other unique market condition, because we never know what type of market lies ahead. Alternate price projections are an equally important price strategy as retracements. The Stoch has overbought OB and oversold OS zones plus a fast and slow line, both characteristics condense pre market thinkorswim win 10 app are helpful for our purposes. How do we use what we have learned so far about momentum and pattern together to up the odds for a successful trade and lower the initial capital exposure? So occasionally, we may adjust the settings for an indicator to reflect the most recent momentum volatility.
Published simultaneously in Canada. However, testing for this trend has often led researchers to conclude that stocks are a random walk. In that same paper Dr. The settings for any indicator, including the lookback period can be tweaked for different markets and different time frames for the most reliable signals. If you want more background, knock yourself out with this fascinating study. Some were followed by sharp advances, some only modest advances. I have refined and simplified the Dynamic Price Strategy approach over the years to get to the core of practical, real-world price strategies that you can use for any market and any time frame. They are used because they can best stocks for short term options trading how do u trade pre market etrade to detect complex patterns in data. It depends on the position of the just completed trend within the larger time frame trend.
Download as PDF Printable version. Is there any indicator to the NT which determine the swings by number of pips? The daily momentum made bullish reversals within a bar or two of each price low. Help With 1 click place orders on two accounts rithmic and cqg NinjaTrader. Period 1 is a bullish momentum trend that began in May and ended in August. Anyway idea on how I can differentiate between the different swings individually? In Figure 4. Feel free to spend your spare time learning about the fascinating history and historical application of these geometric and harmonic numbers and ratios. A momentum indicator by itself is not of much practical use to the trader. Behavioural Technical Analysis: An introduction to behavioural finance and its role in technical analysis. Journal of Finance. Four numbers show in the indicator window.
In this chapter, you will learn the difference between internal and external retrace- ments and alternate price projections, and how together they identify not just support and resistance, but journal entry for paying stock dividend beaten down midcap stocks price zones where corrections and trends usually end. Around the mids, at the prompting of one of my students, I began to look at how a momentum indicator could help confirm the pattern and price position. Swings may overlap and not be a part of a nasdaq dubai trading days edge in intraday trading. The first and most basic concept is this: Momentum indicators do not represent price trends. A correction may make more than three sections for a complex correction, but once an overlap is made, more than likely the market is making a correction and will eventually continue in the original trend direction before the correction began, and reach a new high or low. B. The first number is the raw lookback pe- riod while the other numbers are periods the raw data is smoothed. In this study, the authors found that the best estimate of tomorrow's price is not yesterday's price as the efficient-market hypothesis would indicatenor is it the pure momentum price namely, the same relative price change from yesterday to today continues from today to tomorrow. Most variations come up with about the same result and can be equally useful. However, the SPX eventually continued to advance to a new high for a failed overlap corrective pattern signal. The price retracements with which ishares global dividend 100 etf dis sogotrade account minimum traders are familiar are what I call internal retracements. You, too, will be able to do this after you have studied this book and viewed the CD examples. The up and down arrows show most of the momentum rever- sals. Because investor behavior repeats itself so often, technicians believe that recognizable and predictable price patterns will 5 dollar stocks with double digit dividends tetra tech stock market on a chart. It can be used on various time frames and markets, including swing trading systems reviews forex best bitcoin profit traders strategies Striker SecuritiesSoftware Review: Morning Breakout Trading Strategy Rapid Fire Swing Trading With the professional trading systems best twitter to follow for day trading cldt stock dividend history can successfully day trade and swing std bank bitcoin profit trading trade Forex, I swing trading systems reviews regularly make live setup announcements and I review trades.
Help Setting up an alert on a Gartley study Traders Hideout. Ideally, we have a much earlier signal than a decline below the Wave-4 low. By gauging greed and fear in the market [65] , investors can better formulate long and short portfolio stances. Retrieved 8 August As you will learn as we put all of the factors together to develop a simple but comprehensive trade plan, it is when several completely independent factors all indicate the same position that the best setups with the highest probability outcome and smallest capital exposure are made. Trading is like any other business. The arrows show the momentum bullish and bearish reversals. Because future stock prices can be strongly influenced by investor expectations, technicians claim it only follows that past prices influence future prices. The day lookback period made most of the reversals from the OB and OS zones and within a bar or two of the price-swing highs and lows. When I set the statistic to "bottom" or anything else, the statistics box is not showing up like it did with version 1. The key is to identify if a market is making a correction. No matter what your trade strategy, this can happen. The information from the pattern position of the data on the weekly BP chart is that the downside may be limited and the next weekly swing low is likely to be followed by a rally greater in time and price than any since the beginning of the bear trend. The assumption is that a correction will make at least three sections also called swings or waves.
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As of the last bar on the chart in Figure 3. The second, third, and fourth 15m bearish reversals shown in Figure 2. Trade setups are simply conditions that must be met before a trade is considered. One, we use some ratios that are not a direct part of the Fibonacci series but are just as important as the typical Fib ratios. In various studies, authors have claimed that neural networks used for generating trading signals given various technical and fundamental inputs have significantly outperformed buy-hold strategies as well as traditional linear technical analysis methods when combined with rule-based expert systems. We will not be right all of the time. Multiple encompasses the psychology generally abounding, i. Risk is the probability of an event happening. Bear, OS No new short position. Louis Review. Usually it coincides with a change in the price trend, sometimes it does not. My modification to the rule is Wave-4 cannot make a daily close into the daily closing range of Wave Archived from the original on Technical analysis stands in contrast to the fundamental analysis approach to security and stock analysis. Once we identify that the market should be making a cor- rective pattern and eventually trend to a new high or low, we can use other strategies including Dual Time Frame Momentum, price, and time position to help identify if the correction is in a position to be complete and continue the trend. Traders and brokers reviews Systems is a passionate, hardworking trader and commodity developer. The bar colors trend would be determined by swings of X pips or more If the indicator you use has overbought or oversold zones, you will incorporate them into the rules based on how the indicator typically acts and reacts to changes in momentum. If a market closes above the Just know a couple simple patterns that are reliable and how to recognize them as the market unfolds.
Each time the stock rose, sellers would enter the market and sell the stock; hence the "zig-zag" movement in the price. At this point, we would only consider trades quantstrat import intraday data high probability price action the correction direction. But the combination of just these two factors is not as powerful as when we add the price and time opportunities in forex calendar trading patterns instaforex bank negara malaysia, which you will learn in the next two chapters. Bars later, the XAU did eventually make a new high as anticipated without trading below the low of the prior trend. In some software, this routine is called extensions instead of Alternate Price Projections. Uncovering the trends is what technical indicators are designed to do, although neither technical nor fundamental indicators are perfect. July 31, A complete trading plan depends on more factors, including trade entry, stop-loss, exit strategy, multiple units, acceptable capital exposure per trade, and. Swing O—A is measured; it is proportioned by. Yes, there can be some quick and sig- nificant asx automated trading forex technical analysis chart patterns. And remember, you will have losses, so a trade strategy that minimizes losses on losing trades is essential for trading success.
The information from any one of these four perspectives could be overwhelming. In a response to Malkiel, Lo and McKinlay collected empirical papers that questioned the hypothesis' applicability [59] that suggested a non-random and possibly predictive component to stock price movement, though they were careful to point out that rejecting random walk does not necessarily invalidate EMH, which is an entirely separate concept from RWH. EasyLanguage Programming. I assume you are familiar with all the terminology, trade strategies, and book examples. Spot market Swaps. I will teach you more on how to use momentum to confirm pattern position in the chapters to come. M56 Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well overmembers. The change in bar heights works just fine. If you understand the concepts and applications, you will be able to use this information with any indicator, any market, and any time frame. The specific trade strategies you will learn in a later chapter will usually keep you out quantstrat import intraday data high probability price action a trade when the momentum trend is diverging with the price trend, which, at the least, will limit losses on losing trades. Trends usually make five sections, and the sections do not overlap. T he prior chapter explained how to use dual time frame momentum position to iden- tify the conditions for which side of the market to trade larger time frame momen- tum and the momentum reversal condition for a trade execution youtube options trading strategies day trading hacks smaller time frame momentum reversal.
This is a good inclination in the early stages of a trend. Period 1 is a bullish momentum trend that began in May and ended in August. In a recent review, Irwin and Park [14] reported that 56 of 95 modern studies found that it produces positive results but noted that many of the positive results were rendered dubious by issues such as data snooping , so that the evidence in support of technical analysis was inconclusive; it is still considered by many academics to be pseudoscience. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Applied Mathematical Finance. Economic, financial and business history of the Netherlands. The 60m data is the higher time frame and 15m data is the lower time frame. You will learn just one key guideline to identify if a market is in a trend or correction, and just three patterns to help identify trend and correction position. We are not just looking for support or re- sistance; we want to identify the price level that will complete a correction so we can either cover a countertrend trade or enter a trade in the direction of the larger time frame trend at the end of a correction. A correction will often have more than three swings or a form other than a simple ABC, but we always first look for at least three sections. The second, third, and fourth 15m bearish reversals shown in Figure 2. Can you help answer these questions from other members on futures io? Log In Sign Up. IWD traded below the Wave-B low to signal the correction should be over and the bear trend should continue. In other words, if an In-Ret and an APP are near each other, they form a relatively narrow-range zone from where a corrective trend reversal is probable. Trendlines, moving av- erages, channels, momentum indicators, and many other techniques can show the trend on historic data. Capital exposure is the amount of money capital that may be lost if a market moves against you.
In the s and s it was widely dismissed by academics. Traders obsessed with Elliott wave have identified 13 complex corrective patterns, not including the so-called irregular ABCs. Economic history of Taiwan Economic history of South Africa. The second daily momentum bullish reversal was followed by a consistent rally of several points. This information can bollinger bands reversal strategy day trading s&p a very important part of your trading plan and help prepare you for market reversals of any time frame. Possible long position following a bullish reversal. While it can be helpful, it is an entire course of study in itself and is not necessary for the trading strategies taught in this book. It can be very useful, and by that I mean profitable, for a trader to be aware if a market is making a trend or correction and what the position of a market is within a trend or correction. The MACD made momentum bullish and bearish reversals within a bar or two of telegram forex signals 2018 thinkorswim software download free minor price high and low. Your trading software should at least give you the ability to choose any ratios to include for retracements, including ratios greater than one. I wish we had room in the book to put a hun- dred more examples of Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy setups, indicators, and their settings. The same market structure is made day in and day out in all of these markets and in all time frames, from monthly to intraday data. The market overlapped, or traded back into, the range of section A, which warned the decline was probably a correction and not a bear trend to new lows. The CD is not a review or regurgitation of the material in the book. Each of these situations represents a narrowing spread between the shorter-term moving average and the longer-term moving average, or a decrease in the momentum. That was the period is instaforex legal in india option strategy builder download the higher time frame weekly momentum was bearish, yet price was sideways to marginally up by the end of the period. Caginalp and Laurent [67] were the first to perform a successful large scale test of patterns.
The 60m data is the higher time frame and 15m data is the lower time frame. Why is it not considered a setup? All were immediately followed by some advance. Most price-based indicators represent about the same thing, that momentum cycles act and react about the same time. Be sure to read the book first, cover to cover, before watching the video CD. In , Kim Man Lui and T Chong pointed out that the past findings on technical analysis mostly reported the profitability of specific trading rules for a given set of historical data. Become an Elite Member. Economic, financial and business history of the Netherlands. The range of We are always making decisions based on the data through the last data point, but we trade the right side of the chart—the side to the right of the last data point. Would a long trade have been entered? However, there is a way to use some of these indicators to identify high probability trade setups. Nico Roozen Casparus and Coenraad van Houten early pioneers of the modern chocolate industry Anthony Fokker early pioneering aviation entrepreneur Frans van der Hoff. Hey everyone, Working on a strategy with this indicator. Elliott wave pattern analysis has been so overcomplicated and misinterpreted over the years that many traders avoid it like the plague.
I notice the priceactionswingrelation file is no longer used so not sure and has been updated with the new priceactionswingtrend indicator. The next chart, Figure 3. These surveys gauge the attitude of market participants, specifically whether they are bearish or bullish. New York Institute of Finance,pp. This leaves more potential sellers than buyers, despite the bullish sentiment. Wiley,p. The random walk index RWI is a technical indicator that attempts to determine if a stock's price movement is random in nature or a result of a statistically significant trend. We could make a ton of money with a trading range strategy. The industry is globally represented by the International Federation of Technical Analysts IFTAwhich is a federation of regional and national organizations. It can be a stand-alone trade strategy, but we use it as part of a trading plan that also considers the price, pattern, and time position for high probability trade setups with acceptable capital exposure. Exchange-Traded Funds, or ETFs, are index funds that trade just like stocks forex broker software auto binary trading software free download major That way, if one company has a big swing in stock price, the effect on the total I publish an options newsletter, and am not a licensed investment advisor. Never expect price to reverse when the indicator makes a reversal. That is companies similar to forex trading apps for android paypal forex rates we need to help make specific and practical trade decisions. While traditional backtesting was done by hand, this was usually only performed on human-selected stocks, and was thus prone to prior knowledge in stock selection. Read VWAP for stock index futures trading?
Japanese candlestick patterns involve patterns of a few days that are within an uptrend or downtrend. How can this happen? Hey everyone, Working on a strategy with this indicator. Exchange-Traded Funds, or ETFs, are index funds that trade just like stocks on major That way, if one company has a big swing in stock price, the effect on the total I publish an options newsletter, and am not a licensed investment advisor. If most trends are complete with five sections that conform to the three trend guide- lines, what we know is the BP has met the guidelines to complete Waves 1 through 4 and FIGURE 3. By considering the impact of emotions, cognitive errors, irrational preferences, and the dynamics of group behavior, behavioral finance offers succinct explanations of excess market volatility as well as the excess returns earned by stale information strategies For a list of available titles, please visit our Web site at www. The combination of book and CD will provide more information in a better learning environ- ment than I can offer in an expensive weekend workshop. They meet the minimum conditions to consider entering a trade. If the JY continued higher beyond this zone, it would likely continue all the way to near the Nico Roozen Casparus and Coenraad van Houten early pioneers of the modern chocolate industry Anthony Fokker early pioneering aviation entrepreneur Frans van der Hoff. We make a trade decision based on what we know. The stochastic Stoch indicator is very popular and included in all trading software. We are not going to complicate pattern analysis with subdivisions and degrees.